Syndemic trajectories of heavy drinking, smoking, and depressive symptoms are associated with mortality in women living with HIV in the United States from 1994 to 2017

Background: Heavy drinking, smoking, and depression are common among people with HIV. Little is known about the co-occurring, synergistic effect of having two or more of these conditions long-term –a sustained syndemic – on mortality among women with HIV (WWH). Methods: Data from 3282 WWH of the Women's Interagency HIV Study from 1994 to 2017 were utilized. National Death Index review identified cause of death (n=616). Sustained syndemic phenotypes were based on membership in high-risk groups defined by group-based trajectory models of repeated self-reported alcohol use, smoking, and depressive symptoms and their co-occurrence. Cox proportional hazard models estimated associations of sustained syndemic phenotypes with all-cause, non-AIDS, and non-overdose mortality, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, education, enrollment wave, illicit drug use, and time-varying HIV viral load and CD4+ T-cell count. Results: WWH were 58% Black and 26% Hispanic, with a mean baseline age of 36.7 years. Syndemic phenotypes included zero (45%, n=1463), heavy drinking only (1%, n=35), smoking only (28%, n=928), depressive symptoms only (9%, n=282), and 2+ trajectories (17%, n=574). Compared to zero trajectories, having 2+ trajectories was associated with 3.93 times greater all-cause mortality risk (95% CI 3.07, 5.04) after controlling for confounders and each high-risk trajectory alone. These findings persisted in sensitivity analyses, removing AIDS- and overdose-related mortalities. Conclusions: Clustering of 2+ conditions of heavy drinking, smoking, and depression affected nearly one in five WWH and was associated with higher mortality than zero or one condition. Our findings underscore the need for coordinated screening and parsimonious treatment strategies for these co-occurring conditions.