Risk management for petroleum reservoir production: A simulation-based study of prediction

James Glimm, Shuling Hou, Hongjoong Kim, Yoon Ha Lee, David H. Sharp, Kenny Ye, Qisu Zou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

20 Scopus citations


We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley-Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)173-197
Number of pages25
JournalComputational Geosciences
Issue number3
StatePublished - 2001
Externally publishedYes


  • Bayes' prediction
  • Error model
  • Porous media flow

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computers in Earth Sciences
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Computational Mathematics


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