Predictive Value of CT Biomarkers in Lung Transplantation Survival: Preliminary Investigation in a Diverse, Underserved, Urban Population

Introduction: Survival following lung transplant is low. With limited donor lung availability, predicting post-transplant survival is key. We investigated the predictive value of pre-transplant CT biomarkers on survival. Methods: In this single-center retrospective cohort study of adults in a diverse, underserved, urban lung transplant program (11/8/2017–5/20/2022), chest CTs were analyzed using TeraRecon to assess musculature, fat, and bone. Erector spinae and pectoralis muscle area and attenuation were analyzed. Sarcopenia thresholds were 34.3 (women) and 38.5 (men) Hounsfield Units (HU). Visceral and subcutaneous fat area and HU, and vertebral body HU were measured. Demographics and pre-transplant metrics were recorded. Survival analyses included Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazard. Results: The study cohort comprised 131 patients, 50 women, mean age 60.82 (SD 10.15) years, and mean follow-up 1.78 (SD 1.23) years. Twenty-nine percent were White. Mortality was 32.1%. Kaplan–Meier curves did not follow the proportional hazard assumption for sex, so analysis was stratified. Pre-transplant EMR metrics did not predict survival. Women without sarcopenia at erector spinae or pectoralis had 100% survival (p = 0.007). Sarcopenia did not predict survival in men and muscle area did not predict survival in either sex. Men with higher visceral fat area and HU had decreased survival (p = 0.02). Higher vertebral body density predicted improved survival in men (p = 0.026) and women (p = 0.045). Conclusion: Pre-transplantation CT biomarkers had predictive value in lung transplant survival and varied by sex. The absence of sarcopenia in women, lower visceral fat attenuation and area in men, and higher vertebral body density in both sexes predicted survival in our diverse, urban population.