Modelling the impact of HIV and hepatitis C virus prevention and treatment interventions among people who inject drugs in Kenya

Jack Stone, Hannah Fraser, Josephine G. Walker, Nyashadzaishe Mafirakureva, Bernard Mundia, Charles Cleland, Kigen Bartilol, Helgar Musyoki, Wanjiru Waruiru, Allan Ragi, Parinita Bhattacharjee, Nok Chhun, John Lizcano, Matthew J. Akiyama, Peter Cherutich, Ernst Wisse, Ann Kurth, Niklas Luhmann, Peter Vickerman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


Objectives:People who inject drugs (PWID) in Kenya have high HIV (range across settings: 14-26%) and hepatitis C virus (HCV; 11-36%) prevalence. We evaluated the impact of existing and scaled-up interventions on HIV and HCV incidence among PWID in Kenya.Design:HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID, calibrated to Nairobi and Kenya's Coastal region.Methods:For each setting, we projected the impact (percent of HIV/HCV infections averted in 2020) of existing coverages of antiretroviral therapy (ART; 63-79%), opioid agonist therapy (OAT; 8-13%) and needle and syringe programmes (NSP; 45-61%). We then projected the impact (reduction in HIV/HCV incidence over 2021-2030), of scaling-up harm reduction [Full harm reduction ('Full HR'): 50% OAT, 75% NSP] and/or HIV (UNAIDS 90-90-90) and HCV treatment (1000 PWID over 2021-2025) and reducing sexual risk (by 25/50/75%). We estimated HCV treatment levels needed to reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030.Results:In 2020, OAT and NSP averted 46.0-50.8% (range of medians) of HIV infections and 50.0-66.1% of HCV infections, mostly because of NSP. ART only averted 12.9-39.8% of HIV infections because of suboptimal viral suppression (28-48%). Full HR and ART could reduce HIV incidence by 51.5-64% and HCV incidence by 84.6-86.6% by 2030. Also halving sexual risk could reduce HIV incidence by 68.0-74.1%. Alongside full HR, treating 2244 PWID over 2021-2025 could reduce HCV incidence by 90% by 2030.Conclusion:Existing interventions are having substantial impact on HIV and HCV transmission in Kenya. However, to eliminate HIV and HCV, further scale-up is needed with reductions in sexual risk and HCV treatment.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2191-2201
Number of pages11
Issue number15
StatePublished - Dec 1 2022


  • HIV
  • Kenya
  • hepatitis C virus
  • mathematical modelling
  • people who inject drugs

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Immunology
  • Infectious Diseases


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