Long-Term Survival After Surgery Versus Ablation for Early Liver Cancer in a Large, Nationally Representative Cohort

Objective: To compare survival outcomes (all-cause, cancer-specific, and disease-free) for small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), less than or equal to 5 cm, after ablation (AB) and surgical resection (SR) after adjusting for key confounders. Secondarily, to understand differential survival outcomes of liver transplant (TR) compared with SR and AB. Methods: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program–Medicare, HCCs less than 5 cm that were treated with AB, SR, or TR in 2009 to 2016 (n = 1,215) were identified using Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System codes through Medicare claims. The TR group was subdivided into two groups: TR with prior treatment and TR without prior treatment. All-cause survival, cancer-specific survival, and disease-free survival were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared between groups using log-rank tests and Cox regression analyses. Propensity score-matched comparison of AB and SR groups was performed, with groups matched on demographics, social determinants of health, medical comorbidities, and liver disease severity prognostic indicators. Results: Median study follow-up time was 2.71 years (interquartile range 1.25-3.83). Unadjusted 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific survivals were 85.9%, 67.6%, and 56.3% for the AB group; 91.7%, 82.6%, and 81.7% for the SR group; 93.5%, 88.7%, and 79.4% for TR without prior treatment group; and 96.4%, 93.2%, and 93.2% for TR with prior treatment group (P < .0001). With SR as the reference group, the propensity-matched hazard ratios for AB were 2.04 (95% confidence interval: 1.51-2.77) for all-cause mortality, 2.44 (95% confidence interval: 1.56-3.80) for cancer-specific mortality, and 2.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.61-2.78) for disease recurrence. Discussion: SR is superior to AB for small HCCs in a large, nationally representative, modern cohort, and in secondary analysis TR was superior to both.