A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco

S. M. Blower, H. B. Gershengorn, R. M. Grant

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

323 Scopus citations


The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and averting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths in the San Francisco gay community over the next 10 years was predicted. A transmission model was coupled with a statistical approach that enabled inclusion of a high degree of uncertainty in the potential treatment effects of ART (in terms of infectivity and survival), increase in risky behavior, and rate of emergence of drug resistance. Increasing the usage of ART in San Francisco would decrease the AIDS death rate and could substantially reduce the incidence rate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)650-654
Number of pages5
Issue number5453
StatePublished - Jan 28 2000
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General


Dive into the research topics of 'A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this