Precystectomy Nomogram for Prediction of Advanced Bladder Cancer Stage{A figure is presented}

Objective: To evaluate precystectomy prediction of pT and pN stages at cystectomy. Methods: Multivariate logistic regression analyses modelled variables of 726 evaluable patients treated with radical cystectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy. The first set of models predicted pT_3-4 stage at cystectomy, and the second set predicted pN_1-3 stages at cystectomy. Transurethral resection (TUR) predictors consisted of 2002 T stage, 1973 WHO tumour grade, presence of carcinoma in situ, age, gender, and delivery of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. The area under the ROC curve quantified nomogram accuracy. Two hundred bootstrap resamples were used to reduce overfit bias. Results: At TUR, 11% of patients were staged as pT_3-4 versus 42% at cystectomy. Lymph node metastases were found in 24% of patients at cystectomy (pN_1-3). The multivariate pT_3-4 nomogram was 75.7% accurate versus 71.4% for TUR T stage. The multivariate pN_1-3 nomogram was 63.1% accurate versus 61.0% for TUR T stage. Conclusion: Multivariate nomograms are not perfect, but they do predict more accurately than TUR T stage alone.